Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are everywhere, but not at the Super Bowl

If you’re sick of seeing Kalshi‘s bizarre AI-generated ads every time your favorite show goes to a commercial break, I have some good news to share: You’ll get a reprieve during Super Bowl LX. As it has all season long, the NFL will continue to ban ads for prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, even as those companies achieve multi-billion-dollar valuations.

The NFL’s decision places prediction markets in the same group as other forbidden ad subjects, including pornography, firearms, and tobacco. The league noted that the new wave of gambling platforms lacks necessary “safeguards,” including “prohibitions on easily manipulated markets.”

Traditional sports betting companies like FanDuel and DraftKings will be able to run Super Bowl commercials, but there are a few caveats. They won’t be able to promote their new prediction markets, and no more than six sportsbook ads are expected to run throughout the broadcast.

2025 was a banner year for prediction markets. By letting users bet on everything from political appointments to the return of Jesus Christ to (of course) pro sports, Polymarket and Kalshi combined to amass a trading volume of $12 billion in December alone.

The all-encompassing nature of these betting sites is exactly what has the NFL worried. As a gambling scandal rocks the NBA

, the NFL is demanding a more regulated atmosphere before it throws its weight behind the prediction market fad.

So there will be no Super Bowl spots for Polymarket or Kalshi, but those ascendant companies have millions to spend on advertising. That’s where YouTube comes into the picture. The preeminent video hub has become a popular platform for the prediction market titans, who have collectively inked sponsorship deals with hundreds of creators. According to data from Gospel Stats, Polymarket has sponsored at least 101 YouTube videos over the past 90 days, while Kalshi has sponsored at least 140 videos over the same timeframe.

If prediction markets struggle to get airtime on traditional broadcasts, will they deploy even more resources on platforms like YouTube? That seems like a probable outcome that will put YouTube’s gambling content guidelines to the test.

The dangers of social gambling content became clear in 2022, when the “gamba meta” captivated Twitch. By making outrageous bets on stream, creators captivated their audiences while also exposing them to addiction issues and other potential harms. Twitch responded by cracking down on external links to gambling sites. YouTube took a similar stance in 2025 when it barred users from linking out to “unapproved” gambling sites. It also pledged to age-restrict videos that shill for gambling companies.

Prediction markets won’t go away in 2026, but the rules governing them are liable to change. Will that shift bring a new gamba meta to platforms like YouTube? Let’s just say that if I were a prediction market type of guy, I might be tempted to wager on that outcome.