Netflix began its expansion into non-US territories back in 2010, when it opened up shop in Canada. Since then, it has grown to cover almost the entire world, but over that entire time period, its American audience has remained by far the largest piece of its pie.
According to a new study, that dynamic is about to change. A report from London-based analytics firm IHS Markit has estimated that Netflix’s international customer base will eclipse its American audience by 2018.
The study, which has been shared by Fortune and others, goes on to predict that Netflix will hit 75 million international subscribers by 2020; currently, it has 47 million users in the US and 36 million of them abroad. “By 2020, Netflix global revenues are expected to reach $13 billion, with 53% accounted for by Netflix International markets,” reads the study. “Domestic streaming revenues are expected to hit $6.2 billion by 2020, and international revenues to reach $7 billion.”
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Netflix’s international expansion has been driven in part by its deep penetration into the American market, where it has little more room for growth. As it builds up its audience around the globe, it could find similar issues in other territories (particularly in the UK, where it is a popular option), but there are potential solutions to that future saturation as well. A move into China, while it would be tricky to pull off, could serve as a major boon for the streaming video platform.
In the meantime, Netflix is offering up plenty of original content to both its domestic and international audiences. One show that will appeal to both of those groups is Narcos; the Colombian drug saga will return for its second season on September 2nd.
