The third quarter of 2024 was a big moment for the VTuber industry. Ironmouse set a new record for concurrent viewers on Twitch, the VTuber Awards announced it will return in December, and top agencies like Nijisanji, VShojo, and Hololive continued to rake in revenue hand over fist.
Those highs all point to an industry that is gaining cultural relevance and attention, but the latest report from Streams Charts complicates that narrative. The streaming analytics platform teamed up with VSTATS.jp to collect viewership data from across the VTuber landscape. On the whole, virtual creators got 1.5% less viewership during Q3 than they did during the previous three months. It’s the first time in a year-and-a-half that VTubers have experienced a quarter-over-quarter dip.
VTubers topped 433 million collective views during the third quarter, which was a decline from the 439.5 million collective views during Q2. Streams Charts argued that a dip for YouTube live streamers isn’t necessarily a cause for concern. “The decline in metrics isn’t critical; rather, it reflects the broader situation on YouTube, the primary platform for VTubers,” reads the report. “YouTube saw a dip in performance after a super successful Q2, when the platform set historical records for watch time, average and peak viewers, and the number of active channels.”
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YouTube’s status as the top VTuber platform is a curious topic on its own. Twitch actually hosts a larger share of VTuber channels, but YouTube — the home of several top virtual creators — contributes a bigger portion of the community’s viewership.
The smaller VTubers are more responsible for the industry’s overall viewership downturn. Per the Streams Charts report, the top three VTuber agencies saw their traffic go up quarter-over-quarter, while the viewership share for independent VTubers declined by 4.6% over the same period.
So if bigger VTubers are more prominent on YouTube, but smaller creators are more responsible for the quarterly dip, perhaps YouTube’s downturn isn’t the only explanation for the Streams Charts data. Nijisanji creators have had issues dealing with Twitch’s guidelines, and they’re not alone. There have also been disagreements between VTubers and their management companies, with some notable channels sunsetting during Q3. Minato Aqua’s channel, for example, has been quiet since the Hololive creator’s farewell stream in September.
On a broader level, there are fundamental questions that be asked about the VTuber phenomenon. How many consumers are completely unaware of these virtual creators and their exploding fanbases? Hololive’s partnership with the Los Angeles Dodgers was a hit among VTuber aficionados, though some baseball fans were perplexed by Gawr Gura’s rendition of “Take Me Out To The Ballgame.”
VTubers still have opportunities to increase their market saturation, and the Q3 decline could go down as a momentary blip in a fast-growing cultural scene. After all, Bernie Sanders now knows about VTubers; maybe he’ll share his learnings with his friends in Congress.
